TASIV uses a rules-based valuation engine that evaluates each company across 12 criteria to select the appropriate model automatically. All financial data used in calculations is sourced exclusively from official Tadawul disclosures and manually verified. Every valuation output shows the IV before and after net debt so users understand exactly how the final number is derived.
Shown explicitly on every valuation output using Saudi Aramco (2222) as example.
Raw DCF Value (before debt)
20 years of projected cash flows discounted to today at the sector-calibrated discount rate.
Net Debt Adjustment
Total Liabilities minus Cash ÷ Shares Outstanding. From latest quarterly Tadawul disclosure. Shown for all DCF-model stocks.
SOE Exit Multiple (SOE stocks only)
12× EV/EBITDA global Energy sector median applied at year 20. Only for 7 government-backed companies. Always shown separately from base DCF.
Intrinsic Value per Share
Final equity value after all adjustments. Compared directly to market price.
All financial data passes through three independent verification layers.
SAHMK — Authorized Tadawul Provider (Live Market Data)
Licensed data provider supplying live market prices, beta, Forward P/E, company descriptions, and financial statement data as the initial source. Pro plan: 50,000 API requests/day.
Manual Cross-Verification Against Official Tadawul Disclosures
All core financial figures used in calculations — Revenue, Net Income, Operating Cash Flow, Book Value, Shares Outstanding, Cash, and Liabilities — are manually verified against official Tadawul quarterly and annual disclosures. Tadawul-verified figures unconditionally override SAHMK data in all calculations. Beta and Forward P/E are from SAHMK for display only and do not affect intrinsic value.
Manual Administrative Review
Verified data undergoes a final manual review to confirm the correct reporting period, currency, and consistency with published disclosures. Only data that passes all verification stages is labelled as Tadawul Verified and displayed with the verification date. 26 automated quality flags then run on every valuation output — Critical and Warning flags are shown to users on the Intrinsic Value tab with plain-language explanations.
Before any IV calculation, each company is evaluated across these 12 criteria. The selected model and reason are shown on the Intrinsic Value tab.
Sector Classification
Distinguishes financial/asset-heavy companies from operating businesses. Banks and REITs route to P/B+ROE.
Example: Al Rajhi Bank (1120) → P/B+ROE. Saudi Aramco (2222) → DCF-CFO
Revenue Data Availability
Confirms existence of Tadawul-verified historical revenue data. If absent, routes to FALLBACK.
Example: 243 companies have Tadawul-verified financial data
Revenue Growth Trajectory
Normalized, hyper-inflated, or declining. Hypergrowth routes to PSG model.
Example: RASAN (8313) — Revenue +82% → PSG model
Net Income Consistency
Multi-year profitability trend. Net losses block standard DCF.
Example: Saudi Printing (4270) — negative NI → DCF blocked, P/B used
Operating Cash Flow Consistency
Continuous operational cash generation. Consistent CFO triggers DCF-CFO as preferred model.
Example: Mouwasat (4002) — Consistent CFO 3 years → DCF-CFO selected
Free Cash Flow Availability
Capital expenditure efficiency. When CFO shows a spike but FCF is stable, DCF-FCF is preferred.
Example: CFO_SPIKE flag active + stable FCF → DCF-FCF selected
Corporate Profitability Status
Active restructuring or net-loss phase. Blocks DCF; routes to P/B or FALLBACK.
Example: Companies with NEGATIVE_NET_INCOME flag → P/B or FALLBACK
Data History Depth
Sufficient reporting timeline. DCF requires minimum 2 years for growth rate calculation.
Example: Newly listed companies with 1 year → FALLBACK
Government Ownership (SOE)
State-backed enterprise detection. Triggers conservative Exit Multiple instead of perpetuity growth rate for 7 qualifying companies.
Example: Aramco (2222), STC (7010), SABIC (2010), Maaden (1211) — 7 SOEs total
IFRS 16 Lease Distortion
Detects structural inflation of operating cash flow via capitalised lease liabilities. Fires when CFO/NI exceeds 3× for non-financial sector companies.
Example: Retail chains and gym operators with large lease portfolios — HIGH_CFO_NI_RATIO flag triggered, quality discount applied to CFO
Earnings-to-Cash-Flow Quality Ratio
Cross-validates reported profits against actual cash inflows. CFO/NI > 3× triggers quality discount on CFO before DCF.
Example: Aramco CFO/NI = 1.23× (no flag). CFO/NI > 3× → HIGH_CFO_NI_RATIO flag + quality discount
Live Share Price Availability
Confirms active, unsuspended market quotes from SAHMK licensed feed.
Example: Nama Chemicals (2210), Methanol Chemicals (2001) — suspended April 30 2026. No price → IV = N/A
Used for: Most sectors: Healthcare, Energy, Materials, Telecom, Consumer, Industrial
Examples: Saudi Aramco (2222), Mouwasat Medical (4002), Jarir Marketing (4190)
Projects operating cash flow forward 20 years using three growth phases, then discounts each year back to today. Net debt (Total Liabilities minus Cash) is subtracted to arrive at equity value per share.
Used for: When FCF is consistent but Operating Cash Flow shows a spike or distortion
Examples: Triggered when CFO_SPIKE flag is active but FCF is stable
Uses Free Cash Flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure) as the DCF base instead of CFO. Applied when CFO is distorted by a one-time event.
Used for: When Net Income is consistent but cash flows are unavailable or distorted
Examples: STC Solutions (7202) — stable earnings but volatile cash flows
Uses Net Income as the DCF base. Applied when operating cash flow is unavailable or significantly distorted.
Used for: Banks, financial institutions, REITs, and loss-making companies
Examples: Al Rajhi Bank (1120) ROE 23% → 2.4× BV. Riyad Bank (1010) ROE 14% → 1.15× BV. Riyad REIT (4330) → 1.1× BV. Loss-making: 0.5× BV ceiling.
Calculates a fair P/B multiple from ROE tier. ROE <10% → 0.9×, ROE 10–15% → 1.15×, ROE 15–20% → 1.85×, ROE >20% → 2.4×. REITs use 1.1×. Loss-making companies capped at 0.5×. Does not use cash flow projections.
Used for: High-growth companies with low or negative earnings
Examples: RASAN (8313 — Revenue CAGR +82%), MRNA (4082)
Derives fair P/S ratio from revenue growth rate. Capped at 0.25× to prevent overvaluation. When PSG IV is below 10% of market price, IV is shown as N/A — the market prices future hypergrowth not yet in financial history. Example: RASAN PSG produces SAR 2.11 vs market SAR 149.30 → N/A.
Used for: Franchise operator or brand licensee — royalty structure makes DCF unreliable
Examples: ALAMAR Foods (6014) — KFC/Pizza Hut franchise. Americana (6015, 4200). SASCO (4050) — fuel station network.
IV blocked. Model Not Applicable shown with company-specific explanation. Financial data remains available.
Used for: Government-regulated utility — tariff structures not adequately captured by DCF
Examples: Saudi Electricity (5110) — government-regulated tariffs set below market rates.
IV blocked. Model Not Applicable shown with company-specific explanation. Financial data remains available.
Used for: IFRS 16 lease portfolio materially affects cash-flow comparability
Examples: Leejam Sports (1830) — gym network. IFRS 16 lease accounting inflates reported Operating Cash Flow by approximately 2.5×.
IV blocked. Model Not Applicable shown with company-specific explanation. Financial data remains available.
Used for: Verified financial data exists but all model conditions fail, or stock is suspended
Examples: Suspended stocks: Nama Chemicals (2210), Methanol Chemicals (2001) — suspended April 30, 2026.
IV shown as N/A with a plain-language explanation. Financial data is still displayed.
Critical and Warning flags are shown to the user with plain-language explanations on the Intrinsic Value tab. Info-level flags affect the confidence level and model selection internally.
Category A — Data Quality (16 flags — fire during input validation)
FRANCHISE_OPERATOR
Symbol is a franchise operator, network operator, or regulated utility. DCF and PSG systematically undervalue franchise rights and store/station networks.
Action: IV blocked. Model Not Applicable shown with specific plain-language reason per company. Financial data still displayed.
Example: SASCO (4050) — CFO/NI ratio ~6×–15× over 3 years, driven by SR 2.64B in IFRS 16 lease-capitalized right-of-use assets. Saudi Electricity (5110) — regulated tariffs. Leejam Sports (1830) — IFRS 16 inflates CFO ~2.5×.
NO_FINANCIAL_DATA
Revenue, Net Income, and Operating Cash Flow are all empty — no financial data available.
Action: IV blocked completely. N/A shown with explanation.
Example: Symbols added to registry before first data pull or verification cycle.
SINGLE_YEAR_DATA
Only 1 year of financial data available. DCF requires at least 2 years for a reliable trend.
Action: Output labelled as strictly indicative. Confidence reduced. User informed more history is needed.
Example: Newly listed companies with only 1 year of published Tadawul financial statements.
REVENUE_DECLINING
Revenue CAGR is below -5%. The company's top line is shrinking.
Action: Growth rate assumption floored at 0% — not projected as negative. Suppressed in UI when REVENUE_SHARPLY_DECLINING also fires.
Example: Saudi Aramco (2222) — Revenue CAGR -5.1% across 2023–2025. Growth rate set to 0%.
REVENUE_SHARPLY_DECLINING
Revenue CAGR is below -15%. Sharp structural decline beyond normal cyclical variation.
Action: Confidence set to Low. Strong warning shown. REVENUE_DECLINING suppressed to avoid redundant alert.
Example: Saudi Printing and Packaging (4270) — revenue declined sharply across 3 verified years.
HIGH_CFO_NI_RATIO
Operating Cash Flow exceeds 3× Net Income (threshold: >3× and ≤5×). Possible IFRS 16 lease accounting inflation. Financial sector (banks, insurance) is exempt.
Action: Quality factor 0.85 applied — CFO multiplied by 0.85 before DCF, producing ~15% lower IV.
Example: Non-exempt retail or gym operators with large lease portfolios. Note: capital-intensive sectors are NOT exempt from this flag — only financial sector is.
VERY_HIGH_CFO_NI_RATIO
Operating Cash Flow exceeds 5× Net Income. Strong IFRS 16 distortion indicator. Financial sector is exempt.
Action: Quality factor 0.45–0.60 applied — CFO discounted 40–55% before DCF.
Example: Companies with very large operating lease portfolios where IFRS 16 reclassifies substantial payments from operating to financing cash flows.
THIN_MARGINS
Net profit margin is between 0% and 2%.
Action: Warning shown. No IV block. User informed DCF is highly sensitive to small revenue or cost changes.
Example: Food distribution and trading companies — e.g. SAR 2.9B revenue producing SAR 4M net income (0.1% margin).
NEGATIVE_NET_INCOME
Net margin is zero or negative — company reported a net loss in the latest year.
Action: Confidence Low. Routes to P/B model with 0.5× book value ceiling, or FALLBACK if book value unavailable.
Example: Naseej International Trading (1213) — net loss in all 3 verified years. P/B applied. IV = SAR 0.69 vs market SAR 21.70.
NEGATIVE_OPERATING_CASH_FLOW
Latest-year operating cash flow is negative — the company is burning cash from core operations, independent of reported net income. Financial sector (banks, insurance) is exempt.
Action: Confidence reduced. Critical flag shown — does not gate Debt/EBITDA itself, since accrual earnings can be positive even when cash flow is temporarily negative.
Example: Companies reporting positive accrual earnings but negative operating cash flow — a real, independent distress signal not visible from net income alone.
HIGH_DEBT
Debt/EBITDA ratio (Total Liabilities / Operating Cash Flow) exceeds 4× and is at or below 6×.
Action: Warning shown. Confidence reduced. User alerted that leverage will materially reduce equity value.
Example: Companies with elevated leverage where net debt deduction significantly reduces the raw DCF value.
VERY_HIGH_DEBT
Debt/EBITDA ratio (Total Liabilities / Operating Cash Flow) exceeds 6×.
Action: Confidence Low. Strong warning. IV step breakdown explicitly shows how net debt destroys equity value.
Example: Basic Chemical Industries (1210) — ratio 15.8×. IV = SAR 1.79 vs market SAR 24.20. Bawan (1302) — ratio 17.5×. IV = SAR 6.02 vs market SAR 43.70.
PAYOUT_EXCEEDS_EARNINGS
Dividend payout ratio exceeds 100% — dividends paid exceed reported net earnings.
Action: Warning shown. User informed dividends are funded by reserves or debt and may not be sustainable.
Example: Companies distributing dividends in excess of annual net income — funded from retained earnings or borrowings.
CFO_SPIKE
Latest year Operating Cash Flow more than doubled vs prior year (year-on-year growth > 100%).
Action: Warning shown. Confidence reduced. User warned DCF base may reflect a one-off event.
Example: City Cement (3003) — CFO jumped from SAR 105M (2023) to SAR 262M (2024), a 150% year-on-year increase.
CFO_ELEVATED_VS_HISTORY
Latest Operating Cash Flow exceeds 2× the oldest available year (>100% growth vs history). Catches spikes that occurred in earlier years whose elevated base persists.
Action: Warning shown. Confidence reduced to Medium. User informed DCF may use a structurally elevated base.
Example: City Cement (3003) — latest CFO SAR 245M (2025) is 134% above 2023 level of SAR 105M.
MISSING_SHARES
Shares outstanding is missing or zero — per-share IV calculation is impossible.
Action: IV blocked completely. N/A shown.
Example: Data provider gap for specific symbols — rare since SAHMK Pro plan upgrade.
LIMITED_DATA
Fewer than 2 years of data in one or more financial series AND no other flags raised.
Action: Output labelled as strictly indicative only.
Example: Recently listed companies with fewer than 2 years of published financial results on Tadawul.
Category B — Output Sanity (9 flags — fire after IV is calculated)
IV_VERY_HIGH
Intrinsic Value exceeds 5× the current market price.
Action: Manual Review verdict triggered. User explicitly warned result is extreme and inputs must be verified.
Example: Triggered when DCF base is severely inflated — e.g. extreme single-year CFO anomaly in non-exempt sector.
IV_HIGH
Intrinsic Value is between 2.5× and 5× the current market price.
Action: Warning shown. IV not blocked. User advised to check CFO base year and growth assumptions.
Example: Arabian Mills (2285) — IV = SAR 144.92 vs market SAR 48.14 (3.01× market). Eastern Province Cement (3080) — IV = SAR 84.35 vs market SAR 25.42 (3.32× market).
IV_VERY_LOW
Intrinsic Value is below 20% of the current market price.
Action: Warning shown. Suppressed automatically in UI when MODEL_FIT_WARNING also fires to avoid duplicate alerts.
Example: Distressed stocks where net debt deduction destroys most of the raw DCF value.
MODEL_FIT_WARNING
IV is below 30% of market price AND confidence is Low.
Action: Plain-language explanation: model struggling with this company profile. IV shown as indicative only. IV_VERY_LOW suppressed.
Example: Naseej International Trading (1213) — IV = SAR 0.69 vs market SAR 21.70 (3%). Fires alongside REVENUE_SHARPLY_DECLINING, NEGATIVE_NET_INCOME, VERY_HIGH_DEBT.
MODEL_FIT_WARNING_HIGH
IV exceeds 3× market price AND confidence is Low.
Action: Warning shown. User advised extremely high IV with low confidence may not be reliable.
Example: Single-year CFO spike producing extreme DCF result with insufficient data history to confirm it is representative.
GROWTH_EXCEEDS_CAGR
Revenue CAGR is negative AND the applied growth rate assumption is above 2%.
Action: Warning shown. User informed growth assumption is more optimistic than historical trend supports.
Example: Declining revenue companies where the 0% growth floor creates a gap between historical CAGR and the applied assumption.
GROWTH_FAR_EXCEEDS_CAGR
Applied growth rate assumption is more than 2× the historical revenue CAGR (both positive).
Action: Warning shown. User informed growth assumption substantially exceeds historical data.
Example: Companies where sector growth adjustment pushes the assumption well above the historical rate.
EXTREME_UPSIDE
Calculated upside exceeds 300% (IV is more than 4× market price).
Action: Strong warning. User informed results this large are often caused by distorted inputs.
Example: Triggered for extreme distorted inputs such as severe single-year CFO anomalies. Arabian Mills (2285) and Eastern Cement (3080) are high but currently below this threshold.
INFLATED_CFO_HIGH_IV
CFO/NI ratio exceeds 3× AND IV exceeds 2× market price AND sector is NOT capital-intensive. Detects lease-inflated cash flow overstating IV even after quality discount.
Action: Confidence set to Low. Warning shown. Capital-intensive sectors (Energy, Utilities, Telecom, Transport) are exempt.
Example: Non-exempt sector stocks where both CFO inflation and a high IV gap appear simultaneously.
4 equal-weight pillars (25% each). Wide ≥ 60, Moderate 35–59, Narrow < 35.
💰 Profitability — Net Margin 40pts (≥20% full score, ≥10% partial), Margin Stability 30pts, ROE 30pts (≥20% full, ≥10% partial)
Net Margin leads as the most direct profitability measure. ROE threshold: ≥20% full score, ≥15% strong, ≥10% acceptable.
📊 Predictability — Revenue 35pts, Net Income 35pts, CFO 30pts
Equal weighting because all three are essential. CFO is marginally lower only due to availability constraints — not importance.
🛡 Financial Strength — Debt/EBITDA 40pts (≤1× full, ≤2× strong, ≤3× moderate), CFO Resilience 35pts, Profitability Streak 25pts
Debt/EBITDA leads as the primary solvency metric. Aramco scores 30pts (1.63× → ≤2× tier).
📈 Growth Resilience — Revenue CAGR 50pts (≥15% full, ≥10% strong, ≥5% moderate), Consistency 30pts, Earnings Alignment 20pts
Revenue CAGR leads. Aramco scores 30/100 here (CAGR -5.1% → 0pts for growth, 30pts for consistency) — Wide Moat overall but weak growth resilience.
Conceptual Framework Reference
Conceptually inspired by Morningstar's Economic Moat methodology. TASIV's implementation is independently determined and adapted specifically for Tadawul-listed companies using only official Saudi Exchange disclosures. Not affiliated with or endorsed by Morningstar.
📊 Verdict — Model Gap vs Market Price
🎯 Confidence — Based on Data Quality
Years 1–5
High-growth phase based on historical CAGR and sector profile. Floor: 0%. Cap: WACC + sector spread.
Years 6–10
Transition phase — growth moderates as expansion matures.
Years 11–20
Mature phase — conservative long-run growth assumption aligned with Saudi GDP expectations for the sector.
The same 20-year DCF engine runs three times with slightly different inputs. Net debt is applied identically in all three — the range reflects uncertainty in future cash flows only, not balance sheet assumptions.
| Assumption | Conservative | Base | Optimistic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Growth — Years 1–10 | Base − 0.5% (floor: 0%) | Sector-derived CAGR | Base + 0.5% |
| Growth — Years 11–20 | Base − 0.25% (floor: 0%) | Sector long-term rate | Base + 0.25% |
| Discount Rate | Base + 0.25% | Sector-calibrated WACC | Base − 0.25% (floor: 1%) |
| Net Debt | Identical in all three — fixed from latest quarterly Tadawul disclosure | ||
Aramco (2222) example: Base growth 0% / 3.5%, discount 5.50%, net debt SAR 2.78. Conservative: growth 0% / 3.25%, discount 5.75%. Optimistic: growth 0.5% / 3.75%, discount 5.25%. Net debt SAR 2.78 subtracted in all three. Result: Conservative SAR 36.15 — Base SAR 39.29 — Optimistic SAR 42.43.
7 companies where the government or PIF holds a controlling stake receive a conservative sector Exit Multiple at year 20, based on global median EV/EBITDA (Damodaran, NYU Stern, January 2024). Applied only when base IV < 3× market price.
| Symbol | Company | Multiple | Sector Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2222 | Saudi Aramco | 12× | Energy global median EV/EBITDA |
| 7010 | Saudi Telecom Company (STC) | 14× | Telecom global median EV/EBITDA |
| 2010 | SABIC | 8× | Chemicals global median EV/EBITDA |
| 1211 | Maaden | 10× | Mining global median EV/EBITDA |
| 2082 | ACWA Power | 9× | Infrastructure global median EV/EBITDA |
| 1111 | Tadawul Group | 10× | Financial exchange global median EV/EBITDA |
| 4030 | Bahri | 8× | Energy global median EV/EBITDA |
💰 Income Rating — Based on Dividend Yield
🛡 Safety Rating — Based on Payout Ratio
Manual Review trigger — if IV exceeds 5× market price, the result is flagged for manual review rather than displayed as a verdict.
Capital-intensive sectors (Energy, Utilities, Telecom, Transport) are exempt from the INFLATED_CFO_HIGH_IV flag because high CFO-to-NI ratios are structurally normal in these sectors.
SOE terminal value safeguard — exit multiple is only applied when base IV is below 3× market price.
IV shown as N/A when net debt exceeds raw DCF value — a negative IV has no meaningful interpretation.
IV shown as N/A when PSG model produces IV below 10% of market price — market prices future hypergrowth not yet in financial history.
IV shown as N/A when financial data has not been verified from official Tadawul disclosures.
Net Debt uses Total Liabilities minus Cash as a proxy — may overstate debt for companies with large trade payables. Interest-bearing debt breakdown is not available from public Tadawul disclosures.
Only 3 years of Tadawul-verified data for most companies — more history improves accuracy.
Growth assumptions are model-generated, not analyst consensus — actual results may differ significantly.
Cyclical companies (oil, chemicals, shipping) may appear mispriced at peak or trough earnings.
No backtesting performed yet — formal backtesting planned once sufficient historical data accumulates.
30-day advance notice via homepage banner before cessation.
Website taken offline on the announced date.
All user data permanently deleted within 7 days, in compliance with Saudi PDPL.
Zero financial risk to users — no user funds held. Exit presents zero liquidity risk.
Written report submitted to CMA within 3 business days confirming all actions completed.
Disclaimer: This platform is an interactive computational tool for educational and informational purposes only and is not regulated by the Saudi Capital Market Authority (CMA).
Financial data is sourced from an authorized Tadawul provider and verified through automated and manual processes. All calculated metrics and intrinsic values are mathematical outputs and do not constitute financial advice. All investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the user.