TASIV uses a rules-based valuation engine that evaluates each company across 12 criteria to select the appropriate model automatically. All financial data is sourced exclusively from official Tadawul disclosures. Every valuation output shows the IV before and after net debt so users understand exactly how the final number is derived.
Shown explicitly on every valuation output using Saudi Aramco (2222) as example.
Raw DCF Value (before debt)
20 years of projected cash flows discounted to today at the sector-calibrated discount rate.
Net Debt Adjustment
Total Liabilities minus Cash ÷ Shares Outstanding. From latest quarterly Tadawul disclosure. Shown for all DCF-model stocks.
SOE Exit Multiple (SOE stocks only)
12× EV/EBITDA global Energy sector median applied at year 20. Only for 9 government-backed companies. Always shown separately from base DCF.
Intrinsic Value per Share
Final equity value after all adjustments. Compared directly to market price.
All financial data passes through three independent verification layers.
SAHMK — Authorized Tadawul Provider
Licensed data provider. Supplies market price, beta, shares outstanding, book value, dividend data, and financial ratios. Pro plan: 50,000 API requests/day.
Automated Cross-Verification
Automated agent cross-checks figures against official Tadawul disclosures. Variance exceeding 1% triggers flag and manual review. Secondary verification only — never primary source.
Manual Administrative Review
All verified-store entries undergo final manual review before publishing. Last line of defence ensuring no erroneous data reaches users.
Before any IV calculation, each company is evaluated across these 12 criteria. The selected model and reason are shown on the Intrinsic Value tab.
Sector Classification
Distinguishes financial/asset-heavy companies from operating businesses. Banks and REITs route to P/B+ROE.
Example: Al Rajhi Bank (1120) → P/B+ROE. Saudi Aramco (2222) → DCF-CFO
Revenue Data Availability
Confirms existence of historical top-line data. If absent, routes to FALLBACK.
Example: All 243 Tadawul-verified companies have revenue data
Revenue Growth Trajectory
Normalized, hyper-inflated, or declining. Hypergrowth routes to PSG model.
Example: RASAN (8313) — Revenue +82% → PSG model
Net Income Consistency
Multi-year profitability trend. Net losses block standard DCF.
Example: Saudi Printing (4270) — negative NI → DCF blocked, P/B used
Operating Cash Flow Consistency
Continuous operational cash generation. Consistent CFO triggers DCF-CFO as preferred model.
Example: Mouwasat (4002) — Consistent CFO 3 years → DCF-CFO selected
Free Cash Flow Availability
Capital expenditure efficiency. When CFO shows a spike but FCF is stable, DCF-FCF is preferred.
Example: CFO_SPIKE flag active + stable FCF → DCF-FCF selected
Corporate Profitability Status
Active restructuring or net-loss phase. Blocks DCF; routes to P/B or FALLBACK.
Example: Companies with NEGATIVE_NET_INCOME flag → P/B or FALLBACK
Data History Depth
Sufficient reporting timeline. PSG requires minimum 2 years. DCF requires minimum 2 years for growth rate.
Example: Newly listed companies with 1 year → FALLBACK
Government Ownership (SOE)
State-backed enterprise detection. Triggers conservative Exit Multiple instead of perpetuity growth rate.
Example: Aramco (2222), STC (7010), SABIC (2010), Maaden (1211) — 9 SOEs total
IFRS 16 Lease Distortion
Measures structural inflation of cash statements via capitalised lease liabilities.
Example: STC (7010), fuel station operators — HIGH_CFO_NI_RATIO flag triggered, quality discount applied
Earnings-to-Cash-Flow Quality Ratio
Cross-validates reported profits against actual cash inflows. CFO/NI > 3× triggers automatic discount.
Example: CFO/NI ratio 1.47× (Aramco) = Medium quality. CFO/NI > 3× = VERY_HIGH_CFO_NI_RATIO flag
Live Share Price Availability
Confirms active, unsuspended market quotes from SAHMK licensed feed.
Example: Nama Chemicals (2210), Methanol Chemicals (2001) — suspended April 30 2026. No price → IV = N/A
Used for: Most sectors: Healthcare, Energy, Materials, Telecom, Consumer, Industrial
Examples: Saudi Aramco (2222), Mouwasat Medical (4002), Jarir Marketing (4190)
Projects operating cash flow forward 20 years using three growth phases, then discounts each year back to today. Net debt (Total Liabilities minus Cash) is subtracted to arrive at equity value per share.
Used for: When FCF is consistent but Operating Cash Flow shows a spike or distortion
Examples: Triggered when CFO_SPIKE flag is active but FCF is stable
Uses Free Cash Flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure) as the DCF base instead of CFO. Applied when CFO is distorted by a one-time event.
Used for: When Net Income is consistent but cash flows are unavailable or distorted
Examples: Companies with stable profits but volatile working capital cycles
Uses Net Income as the DCF base. Applied when operating cash flow is unavailable or significantly distorted.
Used for: Banks and financial institutions
Examples: Al Rajhi Bank (1120), Saudi National Bank (1180), Alinma Bank (1150)
Calculates a fair P/B multiple from ROE divided by cost of equity. Multiplies by book value per share to get intrinsic value. Does not use cash flow projections.
Used for: High-growth companies with low or negative earnings
Examples: RASAN (8313 — Revenue CAGR +82%), MRNA (4082)
Derives fair P/S ratio from revenue growth rate. Capped at 0.25× to prevent overvaluation. When PSG IV is below 10% of market price, IV is shown as N/A — the market prices future hypergrowth not yet in financial history.
Used for: Insufficient or inconsistent data across all models
Examples: Newly listed companies, suspended stocks (Nama Chemicals 2210, Methanol Chemicals 2001)
IV shown as N/A with a plain-language explanation. Financial data is still displayed — only the intrinsic value calculation is blocked.
Every flag is shown to the user with a plain-language explanation on the Intrinsic Value tab. No flag is ever hidden.
Category A — Data Quality
HIGH_CFO_NI_RATIO
CFO exceeds 1.5× Net Income — possible IFRS 16 lease inflation.
Action: Quality discount applied to CFO before DCF calculation.
Example: STC (7010) — large infrastructure lease portfolio
VERY_HIGH_CFO_NI_RATIO
CFO exceeds 3× Net Income — strong IFRS 16 distortion.
Action: Stronger automatic quality discount applied.
Example: Fuel station operators or large retail chains with extensive leases
CFO_SPIKE
Single-year CFO anomaly inconsistent with multi-year trend.
Action: Prevents one-time cash event from inflating the DCF base.
Example: RASAN (8313) — CFO jumped from SAR 165M to SAR 333M in one year (+102%)
REVENUE_DECLINING
Revenue declined over available data period.
Action: Growth rate assumption floored at 0%. User informed.
Example: Saudi Aramco (2222) — Revenue CAGR -5.1% → growth rate set to 0%
REVENUE_SHARPLY_DECLINING
Revenue declined more than 20% over data period.
Action: Strong warning of structural pressure beyond normal cyclical variation.
Example: Saudi Printing & Packaging (4270) — Revenue declined sharply across 3 years
NEGATIVE_NET_INCOME
Net loss reported in one or more years.
Action: Prevents DCF from producing a falsely positive IV on a loss-making business.
Example: Saudi Printing & Packaging (4270) — negative NI multiple years, DCF blocked
LIMITED_DATA
Fewer than 2 years of financial data, no other flags raised.
Action: Output labelled as strictly indicative.
Example: Newly listed companies with only 1 year of published results
NOT_TADAWUL_VERIFIED
Financial data not cross-verified against official Tadawul disclosures.
Action: Stock removed from live valuation system until manual verification completes.
Example: New additions to registry pending first verification cycle
Category B — Leverage & Balance Sheet
HIGH_DEBT
Debt/EBITDA ratio exceeds 2×.
Action: Alerts that leverage may reduce equity value after net debt adjustment.
Example: Bawan (1302) — VERY_HIGH_DEBT flag active, IV = SAR 1.58 vs market SAR 44.7
VERY_HIGH_DEBT
Debt/EBITDA exceeds 4× or net debt exceeds 60% of raw DCF value.
Action: Strong warning that equity value after debt may be near zero.
Example: Basic Chemical Industries (1210) — IV = SAR 0.24 vs market SAR 25.16
Category C — Model Fit & Output
MODEL_FIT_WARNING
IV below 30% of market price with Low confidence.
Action: Model output does not fit the stock's market pricing well. Market may price growth not captured by model.
Example: High-growth FinTech and healthcare stocks where early-stage earnings do not reflect future potential
IV_VERY_LOW
IV below 15% of market price.
Action: Strong signal that mathematical output is not a reliable reference for this stock.
Example: Saudi Printing & Packaging (4270) — IV near zero due to negative earnings and high debt
IV_EXTREME_HIGH
IV exceeds 3× market price.
Action: Triggers Manual Review verdict. Prevents users from acting on a potentially anomalous output.
Example: Companies with unusual one-time cash flow spikes inflating the DCF base
THIN_MARGINS
Net profit margin below 3%.
Action: DCF outputs highly sensitive to small profitability changes for thin-margin businesses.
Example: ALAMAR Foods (6014) — thin-margin food distribution, IV = SAR 1.91 vs market SAR 42.18
FRANCHISE_OPERATOR
Franchise or network operator — reported revenue reflects royalty/management fees only, not consolidated system sales. DCF and PSG systematically undervalue franchise rights and store/station network.
Action: IV blocked. EV/EBITDA sector-comparable is the appropriate method but requires D&A data not available from Tadawul public disclosures.
Example: ALAMAR Foods (6014) — KFC/Pizza Hut master franchise. SASCO (4050) — fuel station network operator. Americana (6015).
SOE_NO_EXIT_MULTIPLE
Government-backed company but Exit Multiple not applied — base IV already exceeds 3× market price.
Action: Transparency flag explaining why the Exit Multiple was blocked in this specific case.
Example: SOE company whose DCF alone exceeds a reasonable ceiling
Category D — System & Access
NO_FINANCIAL_DATA
No financial data available for this symbol.
Action: Prevents blank or zero-based valuation from being shown as meaningful output.
Example: REITs or newly listed companies without published financials
MISSING_SHARES
Shares outstanding missing or zero.
Action: Per-share IV cannot be calculated. Output blocked completely.
Example: Data provider gap for specific symbols
INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY
Fewer than 2 years of data in a growth sector.
Action: PSG model requires minimum 2 years to establish a reliable growth rate. Routes to FALLBACK.
Example: RASAN (8313) — 2 years of data, PSG applied but IV shown as N/A (IV = 1.4% of market price)
4 equal-weight pillars (25% each). Wide ≥ 60, Moderate 35–59, Narrow < 35.
💰 Profitability — Net Margin 40pts, Margin Stability 30pts, ROE 30pts
Net Margin leads as the most direct profitability measure. ROE weighted slightly lower as it can be inflated by leverage.
📊 Predictability — Revenue 35pts, Net Income 35pts, CFO 30pts
Equal weighting because all three are essential. CFO is marginally lower only due to availability constraints — not importance.
🛡 Financial Strength — Debt/EBITDA 40pts, CFO Resilience 35pts, Streak 25pts
Debt/EBITDA leads as the primary solvency metric used by all major credit rating agencies.
📈 Growth Resilience — Revenue CAGR 50pts, Consistency 30pts, Earnings Alignment 20pts
Revenue CAGR leads because top-line growth is the foundation of all future value. Aramco scores 30/100 here due to -5.1% CAGR — Wide Moat overall but weak growth resilience.
Conceptual Framework Reference
Conceptually inspired by Morningstar's Economic Moat methodology. TASIV's implementation is independently determined and adapted specifically for Tadawul-listed companies using only official Saudi Exchange disclosures. Not affiliated with or endorsed by Morningstar.
📊 Verdict — Model Gap vs Market Price
🎯 Confidence — Based on Data Quality
Years 1–5
High-growth phase based on historical CAGR and sector profile. Floor: 0%. Cap: WACC + sector spread.
Years 6–10
Transition phase — growth moderates as expansion matures.
Years 11–20
Mature phase — conservative long-run growth assumption aligned with Saudi GDP expectations for the sector.
The same 20-year DCF engine runs three times with slightly different inputs. Net debt is applied identically in all three — the range reflects uncertainty in future cash flows only, not balance sheet assumptions.
| Assumption | Conservative | Base | Optimistic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Growth — Years 1–10 | Base − 0.5% (floor: 0%) | Sector-derived CAGR | Base + 0.5% |
| Growth — Years 11–20 | Base − 0.25% (floor: 0%) | Sector long-term rate | Base + 0.25% |
| Discount Rate | Base + 0.25% | Sector-calibrated WACC | Base − 0.25% (floor: 1%) |
| Net Debt | Identical in all three — fixed from latest quarterly Tadawul disclosure | ||
Aramco (2222) example: Base growth 0% / 3.5%, discount 5.50%, net debt SAR 2.78. Conservative: growth 0% / 3.25%, discount 5.75%. Optimistic: growth 0.5% / 3.75%, discount 5.25%. Net debt SAR 2.78 subtracted in all three. Result: Conservative SAR 36.15 — Base SAR 39.29 — Optimistic SAR 42.43.
9 companies where the government or PIF holds a controlling stake receive a conservative sector Exit Multiple at year 20, based on global median EV/EBITDA. Applied only when base IV < 3× market price.
| Symbol | Company | Multiple | Sector Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2222 | Saudi Aramco | 12× | Energy global median EV/EBITDA |
| 7010 | Saudi Telecom Company (STC) | 14× | Telecom global median EV/EBITDA |
| 2010 | SABIC | 8× | Chemicals global median EV/EBITDA |
| 1211 | Maaden | 10× | Mining global median EV/EBITDA |
| 1180 | Saudi National Bank | 11× | Banking global median EV/EBITDA |
| 5110 | Saudi Electricity Company | 9× | Utilities global median EV/EBITDA |
| 2082 | ACWA Power | 9× | Infrastructure global median EV/EBITDA |
| 1111 | Tadawul Group | 10× | Financial exchange global median EV/EBITDA |
| 4030 | Bahri | 8× | Transport global median EV/EBITDA |
💰 Income Rating — Based on Dividend Yield
🛡 Safety Rating — Based on Payout Ratio
Manual Review trigger — if IV exceeds 3× market price, the result is flagged for manual review rather than displayed as a verdict.
Capital-intensive sectors (Utilities, Energy, Telecom) are exempt from the CFO inflation flag because high CFO-to-NI ratios are normal in these sectors.
SOE terminal value safeguard — exit multiple is only applied when base IV is below 3× market price.
IV shown as N/A when net debt exceeds raw DCF value — a negative IV has no meaningful interpretation.
IV shown as N/A when PSG model produces IV below 10% of market price — market prices future hypergrowth not yet in financial history.
IV shown as N/A when financial data has not been verified from official Tadawul disclosures.
When automated cross-verification detects a variance exceeding 1% between the API provider and official Tadawul disclosures, the platform automatically halts live valuation updates for the affected stock until manual reconciliation is complete.
Net Debt uses Total Liabilities minus Cash as a proxy — may overstate debt for companies with large trade payables. Interest-bearing debt breakdown is not available from public Tadawul disclosures.
Only 3 years of Tadawul-verified data for most companies — more history improves accuracy.
Growth assumptions are model-generated, not analyst consensus — actual results may differ significantly.
Cyclical companies (oil, chemicals, shipping) may appear mispriced at peak or trough earnings.
No backtesting performed yet — formal backtesting planned once sufficient historical data accumulates.
30-day advance notice via homepage banner before cessation.
Website taken offline on the announced date.
All user data permanently deleted within 7 days, in compliance with Saudi PDPL.
Zero financial risk to users — no user funds held. Exit presents zero liquidity risk.
Written report submitted to CMA within 3 business days confirming all actions completed.
Disclaimer: This platform is an interactive computational tool for educational and informational purposes only and is not regulated by the Saudi Capital Market Authority (CMA).
Financial data is sourced from an authorized Tadawul provider and verified through automated and manual processes. All calculated metrics and intrinsic values are mathematical outputs and do not constitute financial advice. All investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the user.